September set a record for how much of Earth was record-hot, and the Senate's permitting deal tests how far the climate movement will compromise to build.
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September 2026 was Earth's second-hottest September and America's hottest. Record heat covered 16.7% of the globe, the most since 1951. story 1 ↓
A record-strong El Niño hasn't released its main heat yet, which makes 2027 a likely new global temperature record. story 1 ↓
The Senate's 417-page permitting bill speeds interstate power lines but exempts gas pipelines from environmental review, which splits climate groups. story 2 ↓
Some LA Tesla Superchargers charge $0.60/kWh at midday and about $0.35 overnight. Drivers with home chargers mostly avoid the gap. story 3 ↓
US heat pump shipments are on track to match or beat the record, even though the $2,000 federal credit ended in 2025. story 4 ↓
Utilities requested a record $4.5 billion in rate hikes last quarter, bringing 2026's total to $23.1 billion. New Jersey's JCP&L asked for the most. story 5 ↓
1/5Yale Climate Connections· Jeff Masters and Bob Henson· Oct 9
September 2026 was Earth's second-hottest September and America's hottest
US and European agencies rank September 2026 as the second-warmest September globally, behind 2023. The US had its hottest September since 1895, driven by warm nights. A strengthening record El Niño makes 2027 a likely record year.
Why it matters · Even before El Niño's main heat release, record heat covered the largest share of Earth's surface ever measured. That makes 2027 a likely new high and sets the next stress test for grids and water.
Know this first
Context from the editor, not the article · 30 sec
Each month, NOAA (the US weather and oceans agency), NASA and Europe's Copernicus service each rank the global temperature against records going back to 1850. Their methods differ slightly, but their rankings usually agree.
The biggest natural swing on top of long-term warming is ENSO, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. During El Niño, the eastern tropical Pacific warms and releases heat into the atmosphere, which raises global temperatures. That boost usually peaks a few months after the event itself peaks. The previous strong El Niño helped make 2023 and 2024 record years. Forecasters judge El Niño's strength by how far sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the central Pacific sit above normal.
super El Niño
An informal label for an El Niño with Niño 3.4 temperatures at least 2.0°C above average.
Map of September 2026 temperature departures; record warmth covered 16.7% of Earth's surface, with no record cold.1 / 3
2/5Volts (David Roberts)· David Roberts· Oct 9
What's in the Senate's 417-page bipartisan permitting bill
Four senators released a bipartisan bill to speed up federal permitting. A former Senate staffer walks through it: tougher rules to plan power lines between regions, higher grid charges for data centers, help for geothermal, and some fossil carve-outs.
Why it matters · The grid's biggest bottleneck is building long-distance power lines. This bill attacks that problem harder than any past attempt, but the price is concessions that split the climate movement.
Know this first
Context from the editor, not the article · 30 sec
"Permitting reform" means changing the federal approvals that big infrastructure needs before it can be built. The best-known is review under NEPA, the National Environmental Policy Act. Clean energy backers argue that the slowest step is building long-distance transmission lines, which carry power between utility territories and regional grid operators. Projects that cross borders between these regions almost never get planned, because no one is clearly responsible and no one clearly pays. Congress has tried to fix this several times. A 2022 deal between Senators Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer failed on a 47–47 vote. The 2023 debt-ceiling law made only small changes. The 2024 Manchin–Barrasso bill passed committee 15–4 but died after that year's election.
backstop
A fallback process that lets FERC approve a line itself when regional planning fails to deliver it.
Image: Volts (David Roberts)
The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act runs 417 pages and 71 sections. Senators Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Mike Lee (R-UT) and Martin Heinrich (D-NM) negotiated it. Clean energy investors and fossil fuel groups both like it, and many climate organizations are urging Democrats to vote no. On his Volts podcast, David Roberts went through the bill with Daniel Palken of Arnold Ventures, an energy philanthropy. Palken worked on permitting bills during more than four years as a Senate staffer.
3/5Heatmap· Andrew Moseman· Oct 9
Time-varying power prices reward EV owners who can wait to charge
Electricity prices change by the hour, unlike gasoline. Electric car drivers who charge at home can wait for cheap power. Drivers who rely on public fast chargers pay peak prices or wait late into the night.
Why it matters · Prices that change through the day can move EV charging away from grid peaks, but the savings go mostly to people with home chargers.
Know this first
Context from the editor, not the article · 30 sec
Wholesale electricity prices move minute by minute with supply, demand and weather. In places like California, demand peaks in the early evening as people get home and switch on air conditioning, while solar output drops off. Utilities and charging networks pass some of this on through time-of-use rates, which charge more at peak hours and less off-peak. EV charging comes in two main types. Home and workplace "level 2" chargers are slow, but cars sit plugged in for hours. Public DC fast chargers fill a battery in about 20–40 minutes, and the network operator sets the price. Most cars sit parked most of the day, so their charging can be shifted to other hours.
Image: Heatmap
Gasoline costs roughly the same at noon and at midnight. Electricity doesn't, and Andrew Moseman argues in Heatmap that this helps EV drivers who can wait and hurts those who can't.
Home charging: long dwell times
4/5Canary Media· Ysabelle Kempe· Oct 9
US heat pump shipments hold up after federal tax credit ends
US heat pump shipments stayed strong in early 2026 even though the federal tax credit of up to $2,000 ended last December. One economist argues the credit never drove most buyers' decisions.
Why it matters · It's an early real-world test of how much household clean-energy subsidies change behavior, and that shapes how governments should spend limited incentive money.
Know this first
Context from the editor, not the article · 30 sec
A heat pump moves heat instead of making it by burning fuel. It pulls heat from outdoor air into a home in winter and runs in reverse as an air conditioner in summer. Replacing gas furnaces with heat pumps is one of the main ways to cut emissions from buildings. Heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces in the US every year since 2022. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act extended a federal tax credit known as 25C through 2032. It covered 30% of a heat pump's cost, up to $2,000. The 2025 budget law passed by congressional Republicans cut that credit off after December 31, 2025. It also ended credits for rooftop solar and home batteries.
Image: Canary Media
5/5Utility Dive· Robert Walton· Oct 9
US utilities asked regulators for a record $4.5 billion in rate increases last quarter
Investor-owned electric and gas utilities asked state regulators for $4.5 billion in rate increases in the third quarter of 2026, a quarterly record. That brings this year's total to $23.1 billion, according to the consumer group PowerLines.
Why it matters · Utility spending on the grid shows up on customer bills through these rate cases, and how affordable power is will shape the politics of building more of it.
Know this first
Context from the editor, not the article · 28 sec
Most Americans get power from investor-owned utilities. These are private, regulated monopolies, and their prices are set by state public utility commissions. To raise prices, a utility files a "rate case." It asks to recover its costs plus an allowed profit on the capital it has invested, known as its rate base. Because profit is tied to investment, heavy spending on poles, wires, substations and storm repairs feeds straight into requested increases. Regulators often approve less than utilities ask for, so requests are a ceiling, not a forecast. Demand growth from data centers, new factories and electrification has pushed utility capital plans sharply higher since about 2023.
PowerLines index of quarterly utility rate increase requests, totaling $23.1 billion through Q3 2026.
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (1), its climate-records office, reported on October 9 that September 2026 was the planet's second-warmest September since 1850. NASA and 2 agree, and all three place it behind 2023. January to September ranks second, behind 2024.
Record heat over more of the planet than ever
The headline ranking understates one number. In September, 16.7% of Earth's land and ocean surface set record highs. That is the largest share for any month since this tracking began in 1951, beating the 14.2% set in May 2024. No area set a record low. Ocean surfaces had their warmest September on record. Land ranked third, and the 3 (the bottom few miles of air, measured by satellite) also ranked third. North America, Asia and the Arctic each had their warmest September.
NCEI's statistical model gives 2026 a better than 99.9% chance of finishing in the top three years, but only a 0.1% chance of being the hottest. The model doesn't account for El Niño, though. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather and NASA both expect 2026 to finish first or second. They expect 2027 to set a clear record, because global temperatures usually peak in the second calendar year of an El Niño.
US: the nights did it
The 48 contiguous states had their hottest September since records began in 1895. It was the fourth monthly record of 2026, after March, July and August, and the year to date is also the hottest on record. Thirteen states set September records, including Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas and Illinois, beating marks from the 1930s Dust Bowl. All 48 states were warmer than average.
Daytime highs ranked only fifth. Nights drove the record: the average daily minimum, 57.47°F, beat the September 2019 record by more than 1.2°F, a very large margin. Rain was scarce. The 12-month 4 ending in September was the driest nationally since 2000. Arizona and New Mexico were exceptions: moisture from an active Pacific hurricane season gave them their second-wettest September and destructive flash floods.
A potentially historic El Niño
Weekly sea surface temperatures in 5 were 2.1°C above average, past the 2.0°C threshold for a "super" El Niño. Actual temperatures there topped 30°C for the first time in the data record. NOAA puts the chance of beating every El Niño since 1950 at 83% for October–December. It expects El Niño conditions to last through early 2027, and a 6 often follows by 2027–28.
Ice and extremes
The Arctic's September minimum of 4.60 million km² ties for 10th-lowest. The last 20 years are the 20 lowest in the satellite record. Antarctica's winter maximum of 17.59 million km² is the third-lowest. So far in 2026, 20 countries or territories have set or tied all-time national heat records; one has set a cold record.
Remember
Nights set the US record: average September lows beat the previous record by more than 1.2°F, while daytime highs ranked fifth.
Niño 3.4 sea temperatures passed 30°C for the first time; NOAA gives 83% odds this El Niño beats every event since 1950.
The last 20 Arctic summers (2007–2026) are the 20 lowest sea-ice minimums in the satellite record.
Palken calls the current system "incredibly toothless." 1, a 2011 rule from the 2, created 11 planning regions that share 15 borders. Over 15 years, that adds up to 225 "region-pair-years" of required coordination. They produced zero interregional lines.
The bill requires neighboring regions to plan together on a regular schedule. They must pick lines that pass cost and reliability tests set in the bill. If a region stalls, Section 2101 lets an outside developer take its line straight to FERC for approval. The cost is then billed to whoever benefits electrically. Palken argues that this threat alone should stop utilities from turning planning into a paper exercise. Utilities often resist these lines because they may not get to build them or the power plants they connect to.
Benefits from state climate policies don't count in the cost-benefit math. Palken thinks that exclusion is what gets red states on board. He argues the pure economic case for transmission is strong anyway: the West and East grids share only about 1.3 gigawatts of transfer capacity.
Other transmission provisions:
States can ask FERC to investigate a utility for overbuilding local lines. Penalties include fines of up to $5 million and cuts to its allowed profit.
A "3" standard pushes utilities to use higher-capacity wires. Upgrades within existing corridors get faster permitting.
FERC must tell grid operators to automate how they process requests to connect to the grid.
Data centers
Section 2107 requires 4. A normal customer pays either the extra upgrade costs it causes or its share of the grid's average cost. Data centers would pay both. Palken expects this could move billions of dollars to other ratepayers. States may also auction connection rights instead of handing them out first-come, first-served.
Geothermal and fossil fuels
A geothermal section with about nine provisions adds a permitting manual (a "Gold Book," like the one oil and gas already have), review exemptions for test wells, and more frequent lease sales. Palken says the bigger help comes from the transmission and 5 changes, because most geothermal resources sit on federal land in the West.
Section 1102 exempts upgrades to existing pipelines, power lines and compressor stations from NEPA review. At least one model ranks it as the bill's biggest source of added emissions. Palken doubts it matters much, because gas pipelines rarely get stuck in NEPA review. He cites a Stanford study finding they needed fewer full 6 than solar projects over a decade.
The text provided ends here. It doesn't include the episode's later discussion of NEPA court limits, state water permits, "forever permits," emissions modeling or the odds of passage.
Remember
Fifteen years under Order 1000 produced zero interregional transmission lines. The bill adds required planning plus a FERC fallback.
Data centers would pay both their own upgrade costs and a share of average grid costs, more than other customers.
Climate benefits are excluded from transmission cost math, a trade Palken thinks is needed to win red-state support.
Andrew Peterman, director of advanced energy solutions at the EV maker Rivian, said at Heatmap's New York Climate Week event that Rivian owners do 80% to 90% of their charging at home on 1 plugs. The car often stays parked 14 to 16 hours but may need only a couple of hours of charging.
That gap is what makes flexibility possible. Peterman gave the example of a California driver who gets home at the evening demand peak. "If you plug in your vehicle then and start charging immediately, you're adding strain to the grid," he said. Many EVs can already be scheduled to start charging later. Rivian is working with utilities on the next step: 2, where the car waits on its own until the price falls below a set threshold, so the owner doesn't have to watch prices.
After that comes the 3, which pools household solar panels, home batteries and EV batteries so they can feed power back to the grid during stressful periods. Owners would get paid for letting the grid borrow stored energy. The article doesn't give any figures on what a VPP would pay or how it would be set up.
Public charging: paying for the peak
Drivers without home charging get far less control. Some Tesla Superchargers near Moseman in Los Angeles charge $0.60 per 4 at midday and about $0.35 in the early-morning hours, roughly 40% less. 5, another fast-charging network, charges its highest rates from 4 to 9 pm and its lowest in a "super off-peak" window from midnight to 8 am. You only get the cheap rate if you're willing to sit at a charger in the middle of the night.
Tesla has also started pricing by 6, raising the price when more plugs are in use. In principle this nudges drivers toward less busy stations. In practice, some users say they set off for a Supercharger at one advertised price and found a higher one when they arrived because a few other cars had pulled in. 7, a fast-growing charging network jointly owned by major automakers, went the other way. It said in August that it keeps one price all day at every station so drivers don't feel duped.
The upshot
Moseman's earlier "convenience tax" argument was that EVs are easier to live with than gas cars if you charge at home and harder if you don't. Prices that change through the day bring the same split to cost. Working out what it costs to drive to work is now much more complicated than reading the price on a gas station sign.
Remember
Rivian says 80–90% of its owners' charging happens at home, where cars sit plugged in 14–16 hours.
Off-peak fast charging at some Los Angeles Superchargers costs about 40% less ($0.35 vs $0.60 per kWh).
Pricing by station occupancy can change the price while you're driving to the charger; Ionna keeps one flat price instead.
Heat pump shipments in the US stayed strong through the first half of 2026. That puts this year on track to match or beat the technology's best year so far, according to a report from the 1, a nonprofit that pushes to cut fossil fuel use in buildings. The coalition draws on shipment data from the 2, the trade group that represents most of the US market.
This is happening even though the federal 3, worth up to $2,000 per heat pump, expired at the end of 2025. The Biden administration had set it to run until 2032, so it ended seven years early. Many analysts expected sales to drop once the subsidy went away. So far, they haven't.
The Canary Media article doesn't give actual shipment numbers or year-over-year percentages. It reports only the overall trend, and readers will need the coalition's report or AHRI's monthly data for the figures.
Why the subsidy may not have mattered much
Lucas Davis, a business professor at UC Berkeley, has offered one explanation: the credit was never what decided most purchases. In a blog post earlier this year he wrote that he suspects "most households adopted heat pumps without ever knowing anything about the credit, or didn't learn about the tax credit until months later when filing their taxes."
He points to earlier research showing that US heat pump adoption depends mainly on three things:
Geography and climate. Heat pumps make the most sense where winters are mild and air conditioning is already needed.
Electricity prices. Cheap power relative to gas makes them cheaper to run.
Subsidies, which seem to matter much less than the first two.
Contractors back this up. They told the trade publication 4 that they were usually the ones who brought up the credit, not their customers. A household replacing a broken furnace or air conditioner in a hurry picks what the installer recommends. A rebate it learns about later doesn't change that decision.
Other supports still in place
Some things the article mentions are still pushing sales along:
State and utility rebates remain available in parts of the country.
Many local governments are still passing rules that encourage homes to move off fossil fuels.
Contractors know heat pumps better than they did a few years ago, which makes them more likely to recommend and install them.
Caveats
This covers half a year of shipments. 5 count units sent from manufacturers to distributors, not systems installed in homes, so inventory changes can blur the picture. The full-year count will be the real test.
Remember
Ending a subsidy early didn't visibly dent heat pump demand in the first half of 2026.
Climate, geography and power prices appear to drive adoption more than tax credits do.
Contractors, not customers, usually raised the credit, so installers have a big say in what households buy.
Investor-owned utilities filed a record $4.5 billion in electric and gas rate increase requests in the third quarter of 2026. That brings the year's total to $23.1 billion, according to a quarterly tracker from 1, a group that advocates for energy consumers.
Where the money is being requested
The South accounted for nearly half the quarter's total. Here is the regional breakdown:
South: $2.2 billion from utilities serving about 11 million customers. That brings the region to $9 billion so far in 2026.
Northeast: $900 million, 5.6 million customers
Midwest: $800 million, 7.9 million customers
West: $600 million, 20.8 million customers
Per customer, the gap is wide. By rough arithmetic, requests come to about $200 per customer in the South and $160 in the Northeast, but about $30 in the West. The article doesn't say whether these figures are annual revenue increases or how much regulators are likely to grant.
The largest single request
FirstEnergy's Jersey Central Power & Light (JCP&L), a New Jersey utility, filed the biggest request in July. It asked for a $253 million increase in 2, the charges for delivering power over local wires. It also asked to recover $476 million in storm costs it had already spent and deferred, collected over 10 years through a separate "3," a dedicated line item on bills. The utility estimates the average residential bill would rise about 8.8%. It says offsets would delay the impact until 2028, and it blames more frequent severe weather for the size of the storm balance.
Other large requests came from Oklahoma Gas & Electric, Indiana Michigan Power, Dominion Energy Virginia and CenterPoint Energy in Texas.
What's driving it
The main driver is capital spending. In 2025 the 4, the trade group for investor-owned electric utilities, projected its members would spend more than $1.1 trillion from 2025 to 2029. A PowerLines analysis this year put spending through 2030 at $1.4 trillion, up 21%. EEI says the money goes to reliability and weather hardening, that every request gets "rigorous review" by state regulators, and that it backs 5 and 6, special rates meant to make big users like data centers pay their share.
Customers are already feeling it. Average residential electricity prices rose about 7.3% between April 2025 and April 2026. This winter, households that heat with electricity are projected to pay 9% more than last year. The projected increase is 5.8% for natural gas, 8.7% for propane and 31.3% for heating oil.
Caveats
PowerLines is an advocacy group, and these figures are requests, not approved increases. Final awards are often lower. With midterm elections a month away, PowerLines founder Charles Hua is openly framing the numbers as a test for elected officials.
Remember
Q3 requests in the South worked out to about $200 per customer, versus about $30 in the West.
JCP&L's request bundles $476 million in deferred storm costs, spread over 10 years, with a $253 million base increase.
Projected utility capital spending through 2030 is now $1.4 trillion, up 21%. That spending is what feeds future rate cases.
